SYNOPSIS
A cold front will drop into the region late this evening and
become nearly stationary over the region through early
Saturday. The front will lift Northward on Saturday as a warm
front before a strong cold front passes through from the West
on Sunday. A secondary cold front follows in the wake while
tracking through early next week. Strong high pressure moves in
by mid-week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Upstream showers have started to track through the area over the
last couple of hours. However, they have all quickly weakened
owing to a limited pool of instability. The 00Z RAP objective
analysis shows residual MUCAPE across the area, but with also
increasing inhibition. As such, echoes will continue to struggle
as they move through the region.
Forcing does improve through the overnight as a cold front moves
in from the West. This may expand shower coverage over the Mid-
Atlantic states. Most notably, the last several runs of the
HRRR favors a marked uptick in convective intensity,
particularly North of I-66. However, it does not have the most
support from other solutions at this time. Will maintain shower
chances through the overnight hours, accompanied by an isolated
thunderstorm or two. Nighttime temperatures are likely to hold
steady in the 50s to low 60s (mid 60s over far Southern Maryland
and along I-64).
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A cold front is expected to move into our region from the NorthWest
early on Friday and stall over our region. This boundary will become
the focus for shower and thunderstorm development through Saturday
morning. Main uncertainty with the front is how far South the front
will drop into our region before it becomes near stationary. A large
gradient in high temperatures is likely on Friday with high
temperatures North of the boundary not getting out of the 60s while
high temps South of the front will likely rising up into the 70s and
low 80s. The best chance for shower development will be in areas
along and just North of the front due to overrunning precipitation.
The front is forecast to lift back North of our region as a warm
front on Saturday leading to the return of warm air advection. A
period dry weather is likely Saturday afternoon before another round
of precipitation is possible late Saturday evening to Sunday due to
a cold frontal passage from the West. High temperatures are forecast
to recover on Saturday with highs in the 70s to low 80s for most of
the region. Areas in NE MD may remain cooler on the cold side of the
front. The threat for thunderstorms and severe weather should remain
low on Saturday as the cold front is forecast to pass through the
region late Saturday into Sunday morning.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A cold front will cross the area Sunday afternoon triggering more
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, East of
Route 15. Showers will also lag behind North of the frontal zone and
last through Sunday evening and may linger across far Southern MD
until Monday afternoon.
A second stronger cold front will drop into the area late Monday
night with gusty NW winds and upslope precipitation as an anomalous
upper low crosses the Northern Mid-Atlantic. 850T drop to -11C Tue
bringing unseasonably very chilly air for early April. Sub-freezing
temperatures are likely Wed and Thu mornings, in addition to
mountain snow. Temps rebound some during the second half of next
week, but remain below normal.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Some residual showers are possible during portions of the night,
with MVFR ceilings settling over all terminals but CHO by
daybreak on Friday. MVFR conditions are likely to continue
through Friday with winds becoming light out of the North. VFR
conditions are likely to return on Saturday for all terminals
but the Baltimore metro airports with winds slowly shifting out
of the South. BWI/MTN will likely become VFR late Saturday
afternoon to early Sat evening. Showers may impact all terminals
late Saturday into Sunday.
Gusts winds up to 30 kt Sunday behind the front and showers
persisting through Sunday evening. Second stronger cold front late
Monday night and Tue will bring stronger winds up to 35 kt.
MARINE
Wind gusts over the waters will slowly weaken through this
evening with SubSCA conditions likely on Friday into Saturday.
Small Craft Advisory level winds may return on Sunday.
SCA conditions are likely Sunday with the potential for Special
Marine Warnings. Strong SCA conditions Tue with potential for
gales.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ534-537-543.
